FPL Gameweek 1 differentials
The FPLXI model's best differential for Gameweek 1 was Alisson Becker (LIV, NEW (A)), projected 7.1 points and owned by 3.8% of managers. Next come Igor Jesus Maciel da Cruz (6.9) and Ollie Watkins (5.5) . A differential here is any player owned by fewer than one manager in ten, ranked by the model's projection.
Predictions updated Fri 21 Aug, 07:00Differentials, Gameweek 1
| Player | Fixture | Price | Owned | Projected points | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 LIV Alisson Becker GK NEW (A) · £5.5m · 3.8% | NEW (A) | £5.5m | 3.8% | 7.1 | 2 |
| 2 NFO Igor Jesus Maciel da Cruz FWD LEE (H) · £5.9m · 3.0% | LEE (H) | £5.9m | 3.0% | 6.9 | 2 |
| 3 AVL Ollie Watkins FWD BHA (A) · £7.8m · 4.2% | BHA (A) | £7.8m | 4.2% | 5.5 | 0 |
| 4 CHE Emiliano Martínez Romero GK FUL (A) · £5.0m · 4.4% | FUL (A) | £5.0m | 4.4% | 5.3 | 0 |
| 5 SUN Brian Brobbey FWD IPS (A) · £5.9m · 8.9% | IPS (A) | £5.9m | 8.9% | 5.2 | 2 |
| 6 SUN Robin Roefs GK IPS (A) · £5.0m · 3.3% | IPS (A) | £5.0m | 3.3% | 5.2 | 1 |
| 7 MCI Gianluigi Donnarumma GK BOU (H) · £5.5m · 8.0% | BOU (H) | £5.5m | 8.0% | 5.0 | 3 |
| 8 ARS Benjamin White DEF COV (H) · £5.5m · 7.2% | COV (H) | £5.5m | 7.2% | 5.0 | 11 |
| 9 ARS Cristhian Mosquera DEF COV (H) · £5.5m · 4.3% | COV (H) | £5.5m | 4.3% | 4.9 | 6 |
| 10 SUN Daniel Ballard DEF IPS (A) · £5.0m · 3.9% | IPS (A) | £5.0m | 3.9% | 4.8 | 0 |
What the FPLXI model considers
Position-specific models trained on five seasons of Premier League data, backtested on a season they never saw. Every figure on this page is model output, written by batch inference before the deadline and never rewritten afterwards.
- Underlying performance: goal threat, chance creation, defensive contribution and save volume, measured per 90 against positional peers.
- Expected minutes: the single biggest driver of points, read from recent starts, rotation and injury news.
- Opponent and venue: attacking and defensive strength of the opposition, home or away, for every fixture in the gameweek.
- Market signals: price, ownership and transfer flow, used as evidence rather than as an instruction.
The model predicts, a deterministic optimiser decides, and language models only explain the decision afterwards. See the published accuracy record
Which of these should you actually make in Gameweek 1?
This page is the model's view of the league. Analyse your own squad and it will rank the moves that gain you the most points from where you are: the transfer worth making, who to captain from the players you own, and the bench order.
Free, no card needed. Or upload a squad screenshot from the home page.
FPLXI is an independent tool and is not affiliated with, or endorsed by, the Premier League or the official Fantasy Premier League game. Every score, rank and projection on this page is FPLXI model output.