In play Deadline Fri 21 Aug, 18:30 UK time

FPL Gameweek 1 Predictions

What the FPLXI model projected for Gameweek 1, and what those players actually scored. Projections cover 599 players across 10 fixtures. Erling Haaland leads the captaincy on 18.9 projected points with the armband.

Last updated Fri 21 Aug, 07:00

The model's best XI

The legal eleven with the highest projected points in Gameweek 1, budget aside. Formation 3-4-3.

Projected
71.3
Actual
38
GK A.Becker 7.1
DEF Calafiori 5.8
DEF White 5.0
DEF Mosquera 4.9
MID Tzolis 7.8
MID Mbeumo 5.6
MID Rogers 5.3
FWD C Haaland 9.5
FWD Igor Jesus 6.9
FWD Watkins 5.5

Top 5 predicted players

Highest projected points of any player in the gameweek.

The players FPLXI projects highest for Gameweek 1
Player xPts Actual
1 MCI Erling Haaland FWD · BOU (H) · £15.5m 9.5 0
2 MUN Bruno Borges Fernandes MID · HUL (A) · £12.0m 8.1 2
3 ARS Christos Tzolis MID · COV (H) · £6.5m 7.8 6
4 LIV Alisson Becker GK · NEW (A) · £5.5m 7.1 0
5 NFO Igor Jesus Maciel da Cruz FWD · LEE (H) · £6.0m 6.9 2

Captain picks

The armband doubles a player's score, so the model simply doubles its projection.

  1. 1 MCI FWD
    Haaland 18.9
    £15.5m projected with the armband

    BOU (H) · 9.5 projected before doubling

  2. 2 MUN MID
    B.Fernandes 16.1
    £12.0m projected with the armband

    HUL (A) · 8.1 projected before doubling

  3. 3 ARS MID
    Tzolis 15.5
    £6.5m projected with the armband

    COV (H) · 7.8 projected before doubling

Gameweek 1 in numbers

Top goalkeeper

7.1 projected points

Top defender

5.8 projected points

Top midfielder

8.1 projected points

Top forward

9.5 projected points

Best value

1.3 projected points per £1.0m

Best differential

7.1 projected points, owned by 3.6% of managers

Gameweek 1 fixtures

Kick-off times in UK time. Open a club for its most likely XI and squad predictions.

What the FPLXI model considers

Position-specific models trained on five seasons of Premier League data, backtested on a season they never saw. Every figure on this page is model output, written by batch inference before the deadline and never rewritten afterwards.

  • Underlying performance: goal threat, chance creation, defensive contribution and save volume, measured per 90 against positional peers.
  • Expected minutes: the single biggest driver of points, read from recent starts, rotation and injury news.
  • Opponent and venue: attacking and defensive strength of the opposition, home or away, for every fixture in the gameweek.
  • Market signals: price, ownership and transfer flow, used as evidence rather than as an instruction.

The model predicts, a deterministic optimiser decides, and language models only explain the decision afterwards. See the published accuracy record

Would this XI beat yours in Gameweek 1?

This page shows what the model thinks about the gameweek. Analyse your own squad and it will tell you what to do about it: the transfer worth making, who to captain from the players you own, and the bench order that gains you the most.

Free, no card needed. Or upload a squad screenshot from the home page.

Predictions by club

FPLXI is an independent tool and is not affiliated with, or endorsed by, the Premier League or the official Fantasy Premier League game. Every score, rank and projection on this page is FPLXI model output.